C072 - Histogram overlap gives a ~= 1e-3 probability of P(up,up) being mislabeled as P(up,down)+...
Verdict: partial
Location: Supp. Mat. S5
Type / expected artifact: numeric / numeric / paper_text
Claim: Histogram overlap gives a ~= 1e-3 probability of P(up,up) being mislabeled as P(up,down)+P(down,up) upon thresholding, which is corrected in real time.
Models: extraction claude-opus-4-8; verification gpt-5; verification_chain claude-opus-4-8 -> gpt-5; verdict_chain partial -> partial.
Limitations: paper_text_only_reimplementation.
Source location(s): source/supp_content.tex:137 (Supp. Mat. S5).
Conclusion
Paper: ~1e-3 probability P(uu) mislabeled as P(ud)+P(du) from histogram overlap of 1- vs 2-bright-ion distributions. Reconstructed with Poisson(mu1=62) and Poisson(mu2=124): optimal threshold T=89 gives P(2-bright as 1-bright)=5.9e-4 (and 1->2 = 5.0e-4); midpoint threshold T=93 gives 2.2e-3. Both are order-of-magnitude consistent with the stated ~1e-3. Reconstruction relies on an idealized Poisson model (paper uses the measured histogram incl. background/dark counts) -> partial.
Verification details
Executable rerun: run.py exited 0 in 0.858s; log verification/C072/attempts/R002/run.log.
Output excerpt:
mu1=62, mu2=124; optimal threshold T = 89
P(2-bright miscounted as 1-bright) = 5.855e-04
P(1-bright miscounted as 2-bright) = 4.961e-04
paper: ~1e-3 probability of P(uu) mislabeled as P(ud)+P(du)
order of magnitude match to 1e-3: True
midpoint threshold T=93: P(2as1)=2.193e-03